Trump’s re-election was highly likely.
The beginning of the end for the Democrats came immediately after the Biden-Trump debate. Suddenly, party operatives and insiders began calling for Biden to drop out of the race. This was a discussion that should have occurred at the start of the election cycle, behind closed doors.
For years, these same insiders sidelined and muted Kamala Harris, leaving her profile underdeveloped. Then, at the eleventh hour, they replaced a sitting president who was reasonably positioned to defend his incumbency and offered a relatively unknown woman of color instead. They gave her less than 100 days to establish a national presence, craft policies, choose a running mate, organise a campaign, and fundraise—all while fending off relentless attacks from both Republicans and Democrats. Meanwhile, she faced an opponent with universal recognition and near-total control of the media narrative.
The Democrats publicly demonstrated a lack of foresight and self-awareness at the exact time voters were beginning to decide on who had the skills to lead their country.
The polls showed, as they almost always do, that the economy and immigration were at the top of the issues list. Trump spent years tying these together to the point that they’re inextricable. Combined, they became more than the sum of their parts – a case for national identity. It’s why he could “weave” from talking about the price of eggs to building a new missile defence system, and still sound coherent to a lot of people. He campaigned on a platform that would give Americans money through tax cuts, jobs through trade barriers and reduced immigration, guns by protecting the second amendment and autonomy by promoting Christian religious freedom. This, to many Americans, was a positive message.
The polls also showed, for the entire time, that Harris never held a meaningful lead. But once she appeared more capable than expected and huge amounts of money began to flow in, her supporters and the media seemed to lose touch with that reality.
Her campaign focused on partisan issues that weren’t important to enough people. They focused on issues that would take American’s money through tax increases, jobs through uncontrolled immigration, guns by weakening the second amendment and autonomy by supporting anti-Christian values. They revealed their intellectual conceit by condescending to any black, brown, gay person or woman who didn’t support their position. They also depended on the idea that Trump’s behavior would deter Christian voters. Despite many being protestants themselves, they once again misunderstood the protestant hamartiology – voters expected him to be sinful, just like them.
This combination was a recipe for disaster.
When Trump leaves office there will be a vacuum of power, but he will continue influence the Republican party and the national discourse. The Democrats now have four years to build Harris’s profile, new leadership, a new message, and try again.
